Finding surebets is work. The tension when watching the games is also lost a little bit. However, there is an alternative that should be finally examined. These are the value bets. These are not 100% certain and are based on probabilities. Each odd can be converted into a chance. The 2.00 means 50% probability of occurrence. If the bookmaker offers this odds, but our own analysis comes to a higher probability, the bet is worthwhile. It is therefore a value bet – just a valuable bet! Testimonials from professionals suggest this is the way to go for long-term success.
- Statistics: Are the key to finding value bets
- Game situations: Should also be considered
- Calculations: Are to be done in the same way as with surebets
- Finding valuable bets: The analysis in focus
Interwetten awards odds of 1.80 for the over 2.5 goals between FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig. To calculate the probability of this quote, we divide the value by one and multiply it by 100: 1.80/1*100. The result is 55.56 percent. If we come up with a higher probability, the tip pays off. To do this, we extend the example to fictitious statistics.
Suppose Schalke plays at home and has so far scored more goals in eight out of ten home games. Leipzig, on the other hand, only has five away games with over 2.5 goals. In addition, we would come up with 13 of 20 games that form our statistical basis. Converted to a percentage (100/20*13), the number is 65. This is higher than 55.56 and therefore a bet is worthwhile. Of course, other statistics such as the Head2Head comparison can be included.
This is how the capital increases with value bets
Since value bets work with probabilities, retracements are only probable. However, we have one long-term goal in mind: stay positive. Suppose we play 100 bets a month with an average odds of 3.20 and win 40 of them. If we always take the same rate as a benchmark, we would be left with a profit of 280 euros if we used 10 euros each. If we succeed in this feat month after month, we can increase the capital employed.
At some point we may no longer bet 10 euros, but 100 euros per bet. It stays at an average of 100 sports bets and the average odds of 3.20, as well as a 40 percent win probability. So we get a profit of 2,800 euros a month. However, value bets are rarely implemented so consistently. A cycle of gains can sometimes be followed by a month of losses. Before the stake (which is actually frequently recalculated on the total available capital) is adjusted upwards, a profit should be made in the long term.
Conclusion: Finding surebets takes patience
Finding surebets is something that requires a lot of work. Only those who search daily and compare odds will be successful here. With high stakes, this strategy can still pay off. Very few are consistent. And indeed, there are a few risks (odds fluctuations, cancellations, etc.). It is therefore worth taking a look at the alternatives. With a little skill, surebets can be put together yourself. There is only a certain amount of time to bridge before the sports bet is 100% secure. Furthermore, there are the value bets, which compare the probabilities of the bookmaker odds with their own calculation. Professionals usually look for their long-term success with value bets.